I hope everyone had a great Christmas!
I cooked a turkey that we brought over to my sister-in-law's house, and I made sure I grabbed the carcass. After roasting the bones, they're in the pot turning into a couple gallons of turkey stock. Half will be Turkey and Rice soup for dinner tonight, and the rest of the plain stock will be canned and put up.
Prepping is a process, not a destination. Always take advantage of excess "stuff" and put some away for later.
I'm a planner. Always have been. Like many folks, I use the end of the year to see how my actions of the past year have matched my planning - and my predictions. I then judge my past performance, see what's out there in the future, and plan for the coming year(s). It is critically important to adjust your planning as events around you change. Keep your goals, adjust your tactics.
I'm not going to disclose my personal goals. Quite honestly, there's nothing in it for me to do so. In fact, doing so could potentially negatively affect my goals. I will disclose some of the planning process and tactics I will be using.
It starts with asking, What do you think will happen in 2012, and more importantly, WHY? How have things changed, and which of these changes can you use to your advantage?
It's easy to say the world will come to an end, or that daisy's will be sprouting up all over town. But without some sort of logical or fact-based reasoning, you're just making a wild-ass guess.
It will be akin to Obama's "Hope" campaign gig. Hope takes no effort. You just click your ruby-slippered heels, and everything magically falls into place.
I think of the economy as a general ledger - you've got debits and credits, pluses and minuses. The most difficult part is factoring in items that go against our individual pre-conceived notions. I try very hard to really look at those things - giving them more time consideration than most other items.
For instance, I think that Bush's and Obama's various "stimulus" cash-injections into the economy have had, and will have, negligible positive effect on the economy. Why? Because they gave the money to the wrong groups.
They gave it to the banks and their ilk, who used the money to keep their companies afloat. There were no strings attached that required the banks to lend the money. In fact, new regulations prohibit the banks from lending to those other than high-FICO/D & B score customers.
Now, if they had taken that (plus or minus) $2 trillion, and literally cut checks to all Americans with a home mortgage, you could have killed two birds with one stone. If the money could only be used to pay down their mortgage, the homeowners would have gotten a significant debt relief, the banks would have gotten their cash infusion, plus the "toxic assets" would have been significantly paid down, so that the asset value would more likely cover the outstanding loan balance.
Yes, it would have been an obscene redistribution of income, and it would have been a horrible idea. But, it would have done more good that the option chosen by Bush and Obama.
That's past history, but I think it's indicative of how the government will proceed in the future. They'll bail out the big banks, big continents, big businesses, big states. The national debt will soar to pay for domestic programs, and Uncle Ben will simply print up extra dollars to buy US treasuries, and to give to Europe (via IMF or ECB).
In the short term, I think this debasing of the dollar will be offset by the crash of the euro. The result will be a marginally stronger dollar, and lower priced commodities - gold, silver, oil, grains, sugar, etc.
What's important here, IMO, is that the national debt is long-term. The stronger dollar - boosted not by positive actions in America, but by crappy things happening in Europe - is temporary.
For me, this is a "Buy Opportunity". I'm running out of space for bulky food commodities, although some will still be purchased. Mostly, it will be gold, silver and ammo.
The Feds are getting more bold in asserting their supremacy, and this trend will continue. 2011 saw the reaffirmation of the Patriot Act, and the Congressional passage of the NDAA - in which the federal government granted itself super-constitutional powers to essentially negate the Fifth amendment and the habeas corpus clause.
We've already seen their actions regarding food regulations. Expect more "progress" on global warming and carbon taxing. Ditto with oil exploration and other natural resources. Their goal is to control all aspects of the economy.
They're usurping states powers, and this will also continue. Things like regulating marijuana. California and 16 other states allow citizens to get pot cards for medical purposes (wink wink). Regardless of your feelings on pot, it IS a state issue as long as sales don't cross state lines.
No matter. The feds are clamped down on this like a pitbull on a ham bone, and they ain't lettin' go.
The shooting will start. Now, I've been saying this for the past 3 or 4 years, and I've not seen the kind of violence I had expected. I am surprised that more political shooting haven't taken place, like the representative that was shot in Arizona.
That was done by a certifiable nut. I think more "mainstream" folks might be nearing the edge, feeling they have nothing left to lose and will start shooting.
Hint: Don't keep all of your guns and ammo in one spot. 'Nuff said.
The level of tension is clearly up, most recently with the appearance of the Occupy movement. Maybe there won't be shooting just yet, but there will be increased violence.
BTW, we've been using this belief - that people are getting closer to the, "I've got nothing left to lose" outlook - to bolster security in our PM store. Employee safety training, and an increase in firearms training will continue throughout the year.
The states and the feds have been using this, "lull in the action" to prepare. The aforementioned changes in federal "law", the arming of local police departments with military-grade armored personnel carriers, pilot-less drones and tactical squads so heavily armed they could be deployed to Afghanistan.
They see an insurrection coming, and are getting ready. You should, too.
I will continue to stay away from paper assets. Stocks, bonds, etc., and continue holding and acquiring tangible assets - PMs, food, ammo and (an outside chance of) real property. With the latter, I'm not sure the bottom has yet been hit, and I won't buy an asset in which I believe I'll take a loss. I also haven't finalized a state in which to live. I only know the states where I won't be living!
I'll be opening another business this coming year as well. It will actually be a spin-off of my gun training/preparation business, but it will be portable. Its success will not be dependent upon where I live. Hopefully, it will be a source of supplemental income over the next few years, and morph into a substantial source in 5 years or so. That's the plan!
As I alluded to earlier, I think the fed will keep printing up money. This isn't all bad news to preppers. It will have the effect of putting a band-aid on the economy, and will help keep it afloat for a little longer.
We'll see tax cuts - without spending cuts. Continuation and expansion of social welfare programs. Subsidies galore. These will help keep some cash in people's hands, and keep the lid from blowing off in a mushroom cloud explosion. As a nation, we'll, "get along," but we won't grow.
Use this lull to fortify your stores. It's a window of opportunity that WILL close.
I'll be expanding my "getting back to basics" knowledge. Particularly in the repair of equipment and in the medical realm. My medical knowledge is barely a hair above first aid. That needs to change. I'll also have a renewed push toward preventative measures. Better overall healthy living and regular check-ups while they're still readily available.
I want to increase my knowledge of tinctures and lotions made from readily available items you can find in nature.
I'm also working on my bartering/negotiating skills. A while back, I told the story of getting a bunch of honey for silver dollars. I've been negotiating some great deals on gold jewelry via Craigslist. So far, all of the pieces I've bought have been for values well below spot prices.
It's more risky than how we buy jewelry in our store - using magnets, loupes and acids - but the experience I've gained over the last 14 months gives me a bit of an edge in identifying costume/fake jewelry. I can't verify the purchase until I get home and test the jewelry, so the ride home is always a bit tense!
I want to expand this to garage sales. We've got an employee who makes a killing buying stuff - from PMs to equipment - by hitting garage sales. I just have to work it into my schedule as a "working day".
Accept The Challenge
Take what I've offered here. Reject, modify or accept it. Do more research. Your OWN research.
State your goals - in writing. Develop your plan and strategy, and execute it with your various tactics. Remember: a goal without action is nothing more than a wish.
Preppers don't wish, they DO!
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Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com
10 comments:
Channel surfing over the weekend - one of the pawn shop programs showed a device/instrument that allowed the store owner to place an item in/on it and it showed a screen with various metals and the percentages that supposedly comprised the make-up of the item. They used it to determine that a "Japanese sword" was in fact _not_ a Japanese sword because a Japanese sword would be made of steel, and this item was made of other metal components. No chemicals required.
Do you know if such a device exists? and if so - is it reasonably accurate? They were careful to show views of the screen only - nothing that gave a real possibility to identify the manufacturer or how it was supposed to work.
Sue, when we first opened our shop, we got one of these things that you clip the piece of gold to, put a dab of this jell and touch it with a probe. It had online "testimonials" that said the thing rocked. It would give you accurate karat readings, and (to us) most importantly, would ID plated jewelry. This stuff is far and away our biggest risk.
It sucked. $400 down the tubes.
We then found out about those testing guns you talked about. They are VERY good and accurate, and VERY expensive. If I remember correctly, a cheap one runs about $15000.
Here's a link to one. Notice, they don't give you the price, you've got to call in!
http://www.olympus-ims.com/en/xrf-xrd/delta-handheld/delta-precious-metals/
A major drawback is that they use X-ray tubes to do their work! I'm guessing they are low-powered devices, but it makes me a bit nervous.
One of our local refiners uses one of these, but they do a couple million dollars a day in business, so speed and accuracy is critical. We're not quite up to those volumes.... yet! ;-)
Suspect that there will quite a bit of unrest this summer - OWS, the EU, still more Arab springs, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc. Culminating with the presidential election in November. If Obama loses, every minority, OWS protestor, and liberal will cry conspiracy, and if Obama loses, every right wingnut, redneck, and conservative will cry conspiracy. Both sides have lots of unstable types and the election, combined with the Mayan calendar believers, who will be panic stricken in December, will lead to some increased level of violence. Possibly to the level of a nationwide Katrina or civil war?
Another thing that I don't understand, outside of a conspiracy setting, is how 86% of the Senate and 68% of the House voted for the NDAA and the military arrest of US Citizens. These guys can't agree on the time of day, but they manage to massively pass this bill? Do they know something they're not telling us?
I thought the SHTF would happen in 2011, but it's just getting worse and worse. I'm concentrating on getting together a defensible homesite, gathering the tribe, and stocking up on tangibles.
- Jack
oops, second part should read "if Obama wins..."
- Jack
You think that the feds see an insurrection coming, I do not believe that is what is going on. I think the feds see that more and more it is inevitable that terrorists use WMDs in an attack on our country. Our borders are unprotected, our ports and sea access is wide open and our airlines dumpthousands of foreigners on our ports every day and they aren't all tourists. I think they anticipate a larger and more deadly 9/11.
You stated that it would have been better if the feds had given the trillions for stimulus to the mortgage holders. I disagree. A more correct answer would be that NO stimulus money be distributed. Lets be honest; everyone who got into mortgage trouble screwed up. They should not be rewarded for screwing up. It's like the brother or brother in law we all know who pisses away his money and is deep in debt all the time. If you were to give him money he would spend it on booze and drugs and not pay off his bills.
Jack, I think you're spot-on with regards to the upcoming election. Regardless of how it turns out, there will be cries of "fix!" I'll be voting for some party other than R or D, as they are just two sides of he same coin. Each has their own special interest groups that get government hand-outs.
This "sameness" goes to your other point as well. The vote on the NDAA makes that crystal clear.
Anon, first, let me make it perfectly clear that ANY government bail out is bad, and I've been a vocal opponent of every single one. The point I was making was that this is how Big Government works, and if they were going to do it, they could have been more efficient with the money.
I know, that borders on clicking my own ruby slippers - expecting government efficiency.
And I do disagree with your perception of why the local police agencies are increasingly looking like military units.
How would militarizing local PDs help if Bin Laden 2 hits us with a WMD? You think there would be rioting that would require the armored personnel carriers, and the drones and the tactical squads?
Really?
If a WMD were to happen, the exact opposite would happen, just as it happened with 9/11. The people of this country would pull together, not turn on the government.
No, these things are to combat domestic insurrection. "Combat" being the operative word.
I think you are comnparing two different things. The gear the local LEOs are buying is a result of money given to them by the feds much like the bail out money. There is no conspiracy to make them military-like simply what else would you expect law enforcement to do with thousands of dollars raining down on them to buy new gear? They buy new gear!! But the point you made first was that "the feds" seem to be preparing for an insurrection. I think the feds know the risk is from outside the country and they also know it's coming and cannot be stopped. The feds are reluctant to share what they know but I believe we are looking at another Pearl Harbor or worse. I also suspect there are literally thousands of sleepers within our borders who will become activated on that day. I do NOT think this is about the federal government deciding to imprison otherwise law abiding U.S. citizens.
I think you are comnparing two different things. The gear the local LEOs are buying is a result of money given to them by the feds much like the bail out money. There is no conspiracy to make them military-like simply what else would you expect law enforcement to do with thousands of dollars raining down on them to buy new gear? They buy new gear!! But the point you made first was that "the feds" seem to be preparing for an insurrection. I think the feds know the risk is from outside the country and they also know it's coming and cannot be stopped. The feds are reluctant to share what they know but I believe we are looking at another Pearl Harbor or worse. I also suspect there are literally thousands of sleepers within our borders who will become activated on that day. I do NOT think this is about the federal government deciding to imprison otherwise law abiding U.S. citizens.
The feds ARE preparing for insurrection by giving the local PDs the tools to fight the violence.
If the purpose of the feds was benevolent, they would have earmarked the money for increased community policing not military vehicles, weapons and training.
Another Pearl Harbor: As stated earlier, this would galvanize the public, not require the military equipment the PDs have.
Sleepers: A few, sure. Thousands of cells, no way. Our border security is a joke, but if there were thousands of terrorist cells in the US, SOME would have been found. If you have FACTS to the contrary, I'd love to hear them.
Citizen internment: Read this.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/doug-casey-getting-out-dodge
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