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Monday, June 27, 2011

Global Warming and Other Oddities

I subscribe to  a service that lets me know if there are any extraordinary events occuring in my area - Amber Alerts, Shelter-In-Place and Severe Weather warnings.

I got this earlier today -
..UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .A VERY DYNAMIC AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WEST SLOPE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CREST TO INCLUDE CARSON PASS ON HIGHWAY 88...EBBETTS PASS ON HIGHWAY 4 AND SONORA PASS ON HIGHWAY 108. * ELEVATION: EXPECT SOME SNOWFALL ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7500 FEET. * TIMING: BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACCUMULATING BY 3 AM PDT. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CARSON PASS ON HIGHWAY 88...EBBETTS PASS ON HIGHWAY 4 AND SONORA PASS ON HIGHWAY 108. * WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * IMPACTS: HIGHWAYS ARE OPEN THROUGH PASSES, SO ACCUMULATION MAY CAUSE DELAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Snow at the end of June.  In summer.  In North America.  Damned Man-Made Global Warming!

Huh?  What?  Don't forget your chains...
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I'm waiting for the Kool-aid drinkers to issue a statement that this cold spell is being caused by man-made global warming.  Hot weather is caused by man-made global warming.  Cold weather is caused by man-made global warming.

It's Climate Change now.  Come on, sport - is it getting hotter or colder?  I thought this big, bad suffocating blanket of CO2 was killing the planet.  Not so much, huh?

If it's not getting too hot, then Thank God we don't need any of that Carbon Tax nonsense, right?  Right?!

Loosen up the tin-foil hats, boys...
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All of my gun classes are still selling out well in advance (woo hoo!).  What's odd is who's taking the classes.  Lots of doctors and teachers.  And couples.  Virtually every class now has at least one husband/wife pair.

A good number of LEOs (men) sending wives, as well.  Oh, and whole families.  Just had a mom, dad, young son and grandpa.  Have a mom, dad, daughter coming up soon.

There's lots of worry out there.  Right under the surface.
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I've given up - totally - trying to predict what's going to happen with the price of gold and silver.  Fini!

Gold crashed last Thursday and Friday by about $50 an ounce.  At the time, the dollar was getting stronger, oil was cratering, as was the stock market.

The "inside scoop" was that with oil and stock crashing, speculators were getting margin calls, so they needed to liquidate gold/silver to get the cash to pay up.

Today, the dollar dropped on news that the euro was getting stronger because it looks like the Greek bailout/austerity plan are going to be positive or some other such happy-talk.  The result:  PMs dropped more.  WTF?

I give up trying to figure this out.

I don't buy PMs as an investment, I do it as a hedge - as a "maintainer" of purchasing power.  I'm not going to sell one thin 90% dime I own until:
  1. Our national debt starts to go down. (LOL!), and
  2. The Federal Reserve stops printing money (electronic and paper), and
  3. Our federal budget does not exceed our federal tax receipts
    Until all of these things happen, our economy cannot fully recover.  They may accomplish one or two of them, but I don't see all three happening any time in the near future.  Maybe ever.

    If Number 2 happens, there will be even less money being circulated that there is now.  Stagflation (aka, "Screwed, blued and tatooed").

    Number 3 could happen if we either cut our federal spending by 40% or increased taxes by 70% (or some combination of the two).  Sure.  And I'll be flying to Paris in my super-duper jet pack tomorrow morning, too.

    Good old Number 1, well, come on... really?  Our bureaucrats have a minuscule chance of operating a balanced budget maybe ONCE.  The socialist left tout Billy Jeff Clinton as having accomplished it, but it was merely accounting procedures.  Social Security money was played with.

    A repeated surplus?  $14 TRILLION worth?!

    Surely you jest, comrade!
    ---

    So, if we have deflation caused by a sputtering economy (ala Japan), an ounce of silver will go down in dollar value, but will still be "redeemable" in products that now cost roughly $35.

    If we have inflation caused by the FRB printing up money and trying to pay our fixed national debt payments with adjustable print-as-you-see-fit fiat dollars, the one ounce of silver will still buy the same products and services.

    It's all relative and rough.  With deflation, you will probably be able to buy a little bit less, and with inflation, a little bit more.

    If you're holding fiat dollars during deflation, you're sitting very pretty (as long as the government doesn't re-value the dollar).  If you're holding fiat dollars during inflation, you're screwed.

    Depressions bring with them - at first - deflation.  Prices and wages crash because no one is buying anything.  The government jumps in, printing money and handing it out willie-nillie and inflation kicks in.

    If you're a Keynesian Economics advocate (like our current administration), you do the printing up money part in an attempt to halt the deflation.  If the economy ever catches hold, you move right to hyper-inflation.  If it doesn't catch hold, you've just forestalled the crash and hopelessly devalued your currency.  Thank you very much.

    See Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and Argentina for class projects.

    How about some more happy faces, huh?


    It's just a big giggle-fest...

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    Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

    3 comments:

    Really Cool Stuff said...

    Hi Just surfing some, Blogs Nice Page Keep up the Good work!
    Christian, site administrator for
    CaliforniaSurfingReports.blogspot.com

    Anonymous said...

    If any real attempt is successful in limiting future deficits the government will not be able to prop up this "dead body" of an economy. It is like watching a rerun of The Weekend At Bernies. If it does begin to collapse it could all go at once. A long slow decline would be manageable at least but a sudden massive collapse would be disasterous. My guess is that in a massive collapse government will "take steps" to fix it. But what steps? With little understanding of the economy and little common sense what will our politicians do? That, to me, is scary.

    Chief Instructor said...

    Christian, thanks for stopping by, dude [sorry, I HAD to do that ;-) ]

    Anon, it's difficult to predict what's going to happen, and when. I try and read a lot of what "Surviving In Argentina" - Ferfal - has to say. The commonality between what Argentina went through in the lead up to their collapse is right on track with what the US is doing.

    Since they have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I try and prepare myself using that information.

    In the event that by some miracle we don't end up in the same place, I've got food, PMs, and equipment that won't go to waste in a "normal" society.

    Not a bad place to be in...