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Thursday, February 4, 2010

Guns and Gold

Two things on my mind:  A new reason to own a gun in California, and some head scratching over gold prices.

Many folks have heard that California has been ordered to release a butt-load of prisoners.  Even though our state has the highest per-prisoner spending rate in the country, we are apparently pissing the money away (well, there's a shock) and the prisoners are deemed to be "over-crowded".

The first prisoners were released on Monday. How's that been workin' out?

It was probably just a matter of time. But less than one day?

Sacramento sheriff's officials say that's how long it took for an inmate who was set free Monday under an early-release plan to be arrested again, this time on a charge of attempted rape.
Ah, rape. That's a bad thing, right? Apparently, it's not to the Ninth Circuit Court that ordered the release program.

But that's not important.  The rights of the rape victim don't matter.  The only thing that's important is that animals like this guy aren't having THEIR rights trampled.  Taxpayers and law abiding citizens be damned.

With the state of our economy - expecially here in California - these guys won't be finding jobs any time soon.  They need food and money just like the rest of us.  Any guesses where they're going to get it?

You're insane, or a member of the Ninth Circuit Court, if you don't think they will  be visiting you or your neighbors.

Assess, acquire, shoot, repeat as necessary.

Oh, by the way, this was just the first wave.  There are plans to catch-and-release over 40,000 misunderstood individuals just like this guy.

Feelin' good about how your tax dollars are being spent?

If you watch the price of precious metals, you've seen them absolutely plummet in the past few weeks.  In early January, the price was around $1160 an ounce.  At this very second, it is at $1064 - an 8.27% drop in the past month.  Not good.

What has got me scratching my head is, WHY?

I think I know the answer, and it will make your head explode.  More importantly, I think it will give me an incentive to buy MORE precious metals (PM).

If you look just at the US, PM should be going up in price.  The dollar is being debased by our government - they're printing dollars like nobody's business and we're monitizing our own debt with much of that money.  It is a recipe for disaster.

Yet gold and silver prices continue to drop.

At least in the short-term, we need to look outside of our borders.  While we are in horrible shape, the rest of the world is worse off.  Many countries are teetering on the brink of bankrupcy.
Worries over debt levels in Spain and Portugal have increased as investors speculate the two countries may face budget deficit and debt problems like those of Greece. Such concerns helped lift the relatively safer haven U.S. dollar and yen.
That last sentence explains what is going on.  Our economy may suck, but not as badly as the rest of the world.  The dollar is the least-objectionable world currency.

When the dollar rises in value, PM prices drop.

Still, the underlying US economy is in horrible shape.  Our annual deficit-to-GDP ratios have never been higher (approx. 10% - $1.3 trillion/$14 trillion). 

Our national debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 94% after this year.  We've borrowed nearly as much as our entire country produces each year!  It's projected to be 108% by 2014.

When you include all of our unfunded liabilities such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, our debt is well north of $100 TRILLION.

We can never, ever pay this off.  Never.  An increasingly large portion of our tax dollars are directed to debt payments and social programs.  This is only going to get worse.

The government will have to continue to borrow and print money, and the dollar will be even futher debased.  The ONLY result can be inflation.  Ugly inflation.

That will result in an increase in the value of PM.  Your dollars in a savings account are going to be eaten alive.  Hell, Treasury Bills were recently paying NEGATIVE interest!  You didn't even get back all of your principal when investing in the US government.

I look at this drop in prices as a Buy Opportunity.

Whatcha think?

Accept The Challenge

Precious Metals can be very volitile.  Personally, I don't look at them so much as an investment, as I do a hedge against inflation.  A relatively small portion of our money is in PM, but it IS growing.

If you are considering getting into PM, PLEASE get educated.  We did a tutorial on how to buy 90% silver.  Read financial and economic reports from multiple sources, make a decision on where you think things are going, and act accordingly.

Copyright 2009 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates.


Ryan said...

I totally agree with you on the hedge idea. I also look at it sort of as the very conservative portion of my overall financial planning. Some folks buy savings bonds or whatever, I have a Crown Royal bag with some silver and gold.

I bought gold pretty recently otherwise I would buy some silver today. Will purchase some more silver in the 3-4 months baring the price going insane or a us having a serious financial calamity.

Chief Instructor said...

Yep, PMs are too volatile, IMO, to be an investment, unless you watch the market very closely every day. There are so many things that can affect the price one way or another.

Mine is strictly as a hedge against inflation.

Anonymous said...

That jerk is just the vanguard. We are quietly doing the same thing here in Georgia, letting the "non-violent" prisoners out because the feds say our jails are overcrowded. So Jose breaks into your car, steals whatever he can find, gets caught, gets right out the door because there's no courts to try him in or jails to put him in, and pretty soon he graduates to houses, to businesses, and on and on. I don't even go down the mountain to the mailbox anymore unarmed.

Chief Instructor said...

We've recently discussed home defense after a recent rash of armed robberies that occured recently. It can ONLY get worse with these criminals getting kicked free.