Das Party At Work

Before I get going, I wanted to give you all a heads-up on a new site added to my Daily Read list:  Subsistence Pattern Food Garden [link].  It's a very interesting site that focus' on year 'round vegetable gardens.

Take a look.  It could come in handy...
---

I've been listening with one ear to all of the Republican's trashing each other.  Play nice, kids!

I've been hearing the most noise being directed towards one of the only Republican I could ever consider giving my vote:  Ron Paul.  He's a RINO - his views are really those of a libertarian.

He's always gotten short shrift from the conservative radio crowd.  They can't stand him because he doesn't toe the party line.  He believes in the Constitution.  He believes it is in place to limit the federal government.  He believes that if a power is not specifically granted to the federal government, any exercise of said power is unconstitutional.

Pretty radical, huh?

The talking-heads say he wants to legalize heroin and other dangerous drugs.  True, kinda.  He wants the FEDERAL government to get out of the unconstitutional prohibition business.  Unless a sale happened to cross state lines, the federal government has no constitutional standing.  If a STATE government wants to regulate dope, knock yourself out.

I ask anti-Paul folks if all drugs were re-legalized, would they start using them.  "Of course not!", they huff.  But there are too many weak-minded, weak-willed people out there that WOULD start using drugs.  And think about the children!

Basically, their stance is that they are strong and decent, but everyone else is weak and needs the government to wipe their ass.  Sounds a lot like when the Democrats want to regulate fast food, and salt, and fats, and cigarettes, and...  You get the idea.

Isn't it amazing that we were able to declare independence, fight the largest, most powerful country in the world - and win, invent and innovate at such a clip that the entire world benefited from our brains, grow the country from shore-to-shore, have the Industrial Revolution, and lots of other neat stuff, all while not being told what we could put into our own bodies.

Either we're extraordinarily gifted when we're high, or most people choose not to abuse drugs and alcohol.  Hmm, I wonder which one it is?

They say he wants to dismantle the military.  Eh, not really.  He wants it to only engage foreign entities when America is at risk.  He wants to reduce our "footprint" around the world.  Bases in South Korea and Europe come to mind.  I'd be hard pressed to argue for either of those.  Seems like those keep Koreans and Europeans safe, not Americans.  You know, the folks paying the bill.

I disagree with his stance on Iran and Israel, but fully support him about Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Peace Prizer's recent forays into Libya and the rest of the Middle East.
---

As soon as he moved ahead in the polls past Gingrich (or was it Romney) in Iowa, Das Party went to work. Cut the kook off at the knees.  He's spoutin' some dangerous stuff.

Their latest attack centers around some pretty damning newsletters that went out for a good number of years - under his name.

When I heard what was in these newsletters, I was shocked.  Not so much by what they said, but that they could be attributed to Ron Paul.  I have NEVER seen his lips move and say things even remotely associated with the beliefs espoused in the newsletters.

He immediately came out and disavowed knowing what was being written in them.  I dunno.  This seems a lot like Obama saying he attended Rev. Wright's church for 20 years and didn't know he was a racist and whack job.

Take a look at this posting [link].  It poses a lot of question I've got.

But the questions remain. If Ron Paul is so libertarian that he won't even police people who use his name, if his movement is filled with incompetents and opportunists, then what kind of a president would he make? Would he even check in to see if his ideas are being implemented? Who would he appoint to Cabinet positions?

I hope he comes out and addresses these types of questions in detail. Put this to bed and move on. His public service life has no tinge of this kind of stuff, so I hope he's able to give a convincing explanation.
---

On a positive note, that d-bag Gingrich has slammed the door shut on picking up any Paul supporters.

"I think Ron Paul's views are totally outside the mainstream of virtually every decent American."
--Newt Gingrich on CNN's The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer

Doh!  Kinda stepped on your schwantz with that one, didn't ya Newt?  Those indecent Paul supporters vote.  In droves.

I'm sure the flip-flopping, damage control is already in the works...

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

Dustin' Off The Crystal Ball

I hope everyone had a great Christmas!

I cooked a turkey that we brought over to my sister-in-law's house, and I made sure I grabbed the carcass.  After roasting the bones, they're in the pot turning into a couple gallons of turkey stock.  Half will be Turkey and Rice soup for dinner tonight, and the rest of the plain stock will be canned and put up.

Prepping is a process, not a destination.  Always take advantage of excess "stuff" and put some away for later.

I'm a planner.  Always have been.  Like many folks, I use the end of the year to see how my actions of the past year have matched my planning - and my predictions.  I then judge my past performance, see what's out there in the future, and plan for the coming year(s).  It is critically important to adjust your planning as events around you change.  Keep your goals, adjust your tactics.

I'm not going to disclose my personal goals.  Quite honestly, there's nothing in it for me to do so.  In fact, doing so could potentially negatively affect my goals.  I will disclose some of the planning process and tactics I will be using.

It starts with asking, What do you think will happen in 2012, and more importantly, WHY?  How have things changed, and which of these changes can you use to your advantage?

It's easy to say the world will come to an end, or that daisy's will be sprouting up all over town.  But without some sort of logical or fact-based reasoning, you're just making a wild-ass guess.

It will be akin to Obama's "Hope" campaign gig.  Hope takes no effort.  You just click your ruby-slippered heels, and everything magically falls into place.

I think of the economy as a general ledger - you've got debits and credits, pluses and minuses.  The most difficult part is factoring in items that go against our individual pre-conceived notions.  I try very hard to really look at those things - giving them more time consideration than most other items.

For instance, I think that Bush's and Obama's various "stimulus" cash-injections into the economy have had, and will have, negligible positive effect on the economy.  Why?  Because they gave the money to the wrong groups.

They gave it to the banks and their ilk, who used the money to keep their companies afloat.  There were no strings attached that required the banks to lend the money.  In fact, new regulations prohibit the banks from lending to those other than high-FICO/D & B score customers.

Now, if they had taken that (plus or minus) $2 trillion, and literally cut checks to all Americans with a home mortgage, you could have killed two birds with one stone.  If the money could only be used to pay down their mortgage, the homeowners would have gotten a significant debt relief, the banks would have gotten their cash infusion, plus the "toxic assets" would have been significantly paid down, so that the asset value would more likely cover the outstanding loan balance.

Yes, it would have been an obscene redistribution of income, and it would have been a horrible idea.  But, it would have done more good that the option chosen by Bush and Obama.

That's past history, but I think it's indicative of how the government will proceed in the future.  They'll bail out the big banks, big continents, big businesses, big states.  The national debt will soar to pay for domestic programs, and Uncle Ben will simply print up extra dollars to buy US treasuries, and to give to Europe (via IMF or ECB).

In the short term, I think this debasing of the dollar will be offset by the crash of the euro.  The result will be a marginally stronger dollar, and lower priced commodities - gold, silver, oil, grains, sugar, etc.

What's important here, IMO, is that the national debt is long-term.  The stronger dollar - boosted not by positive actions in America, but by crappy things happening in Europe - is temporary.

For me, this is a "Buy Opportunity".  I'm running out of space for bulky food commodities, although some will still be purchased.  Mostly, it will be gold, silver and ammo.


The Feds are getting more bold in asserting their supremacy, and this trend will continue.  2011 saw the reaffirmation of the Patriot Act, and the Congressional passage of the NDAA - in which the federal government granted itself super-constitutional powers to essentially negate the Fifth amendment and the habeas corpus clause.

We've already seen their actions regarding food regulations.  Expect more "progress" on global warming and carbon taxing.  Ditto with oil exploration and other natural resources.  Their goal is to control all aspects of the economy.

They're usurping states powers, and this will also continue.  Things like regulating marijuana.  California and 16 other states allow citizens to get pot cards for medical purposes (wink wink).  Regardless of your feelings on pot, it IS a state issue as long as sales don't cross state lines.

No matter.  The feds are clamped down on this like a pitbull on a ham bone, and they ain't lettin' go.


The shooting will start.  Now, I've been saying this for the past 3 or 4 years, and I've not seen the kind of violence I had expected.  I am surprised that more political shooting haven't taken place, like the representative that was shot in Arizona.

That was done by a certifiable nut.  I think more "mainstream" folks might be nearing the edge, feeling they have nothing left to lose and will start shooting.

Hint:  Don't keep all of your guns and ammo in one spot.  'Nuff said.

The level of tension is clearly up, most recently with the appearance of the Occupy movement.  Maybe there won't be shooting just yet, but there will be increased violence.

BTW, we've been using this belief - that people are getting closer to the, "I've got nothing left to lose" outlook - to bolster security in our PM store.  Employee safety training, and an increase in firearms training will continue throughout the year.

The states and the feds have been using this, "lull in the action" to prepare.  The aforementioned changes in federal "law", the arming of local police departments with military-grade armored personnel carriers, pilot-less drones and tactical squads so heavily armed they could be deployed to Afghanistan.

They see an insurrection coming, and are getting ready.  You should, too.

I will continue to stay away from paper assets.  Stocks, bonds, etc., and continue holding and acquiring tangible assets - PMs, food, ammo and (an outside chance of) real property.  With the latter, I'm not sure the bottom has yet been hit, and I won't buy an asset in which I believe I'll take a loss.  I also haven't finalized a state in which to live.  I only know the states where I won't be living!

I'll be opening another business this coming year as well.  It will actually be a spin-off of my gun training/preparation business, but it will be portable.  Its success will not be dependent upon where I live.  Hopefully, it will be a source of supplemental income over the next few years, and morph into a substantial source in 5 years or so.  That's the plan!

As I alluded to earlier, I think the fed will keep printing up money.  This isn't all bad news to preppers.  It will have the effect of putting a band-aid on the economy, and will help keep it afloat for a little longer.

We'll see tax cuts - without spending cuts.  Continuation and expansion of social welfare programs.  Subsidies galore.  These will help keep some cash in people's hands, and keep the lid from blowing off in a mushroom cloud explosion.  As a nation, we'll, "get along," but we won't grow.

Use this lull to fortify your stores.  It's a window of opportunity that WILL close.

I'll be expanding my "getting back to basics" knowledge.  Particularly in the repair of equipment and in the medical realm.  My medical knowledge is barely a hair above first aid.  That needs to change.  I'll also have a renewed push toward preventative measures.  Better overall healthy living and regular check-ups while they're still readily available.

I want to increase my knowledge of tinctures and lotions made from readily available items you can find in nature.

I'm also working on my bartering/negotiating skills.  A while back, I told the story of getting a bunch of honey for silver dollars.  I've been negotiating some great deals on gold jewelry via Craigslist.  So far, all of the pieces I've bought have been for values well below spot prices.

It's more risky than how we buy jewelry in our store - using magnets, loupes and acids - but the experience I've gained over the last 14 months gives me a bit of an edge in identifying costume/fake jewelry.  I can't verify the purchase until I get home and test the jewelry, so the ride home is always a bit tense!

I want to expand this to garage sales.  We've got an employee who makes a killing buying stuff - from PMs to equipment - by hitting garage sales.  I just have to work it into my schedule as a "working day".

Accept The Challenge

Take what I've offered here.  Reject, modify or accept it.  Do more research.  Your OWN research.

State your goals - in writing.  Develop your plan and strategy, and execute it with your various tactics.  Remember:  a goal without action is nothing more than a wish.

Preppers don't wish, they DO!

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

Going Galt In California

What follows is about business in California, but it is also happening to the nation as a whole.  If there is a more profitable physical location somewhere else, business will go there.  The sole obligation a company has is to its shareholders.  Not to its employees, its city, its state or its country.  A smart company will develop relationships with all of these entities to enhance its ability to make money for its shareholders.  When all else fails, you change the cast of characters with whom you build relationships.


Liberals:  Please challenge this statement so I'll have fodder for another post.

Businesses and individuals are leaving California in droves.  Their tax dollars are going with them.

One of the latest is a company headquartered in the Sacramento region, called Waste Connections.  Its headquarters, in the city of Folsom, is moving to Texas (well there's a shock... not).  They're moving for a number of reasons, but the primary cause of the relocation is that it's too expensive to do business in California.

The city will be losing 120 high-paying jobs, and the $80-$100 million the company spends in the area each year.  Rental cars, hotel rooms, accountants, restaurants.  Buh bye.

Click here [link] to listen to 4 minutes of an interview with the CEO after their announcement.  It's awesome and to the point.

The money quote is right at the end, and really tells the story of what's happening in this state.

"[California State Senator Darrell Steinberg] basically told me that business is a fungible commodity - it comes and it goes.  So, in this case, it's going"

--Waste Connections CEO Ron Mittlestaedt, locking the door and turning out the lights

This maggot Sen. Steinberg had a great comeback to the CEO [/sarcasm].  He noted that Waste Connections should be happy with the profitability they made here in California -

Senate Pro-Tem Darrell Steinberg pointed to Waste Connections’ profitability in California, with revenues up 38 percent in three years, according to the company’s annual report.

Steinberg is of the opinion that companies should be grateful for what California so graciously gives them.  Apparently, Waste Connections figures it could make more money for its shareholders in Texas, and not have to deal with the obscene regulatory climate we saddle on business.

Uprooting its entire corporate structure was deemed less painful and more profitable than staying in California.
---

'Going Galt' - the idea of productive individuals abandoning the status quo and setting up shop elsewhere - has manifest itself on the national stage when large companies move their manufacturing facilities to other countries.  Lower costs, lower regulation, higher profits.  No brainer.

Unions, politicians and Occupiers cry for, "living wages" for employees - many times making it the law.  Business respond by cutting jobs and/or moving to more fertile grounds.  This has been repeated over and over, but the politicians and unions don't get it.

The plot of Atlas Shrugged keeps replaying itself.  More "fairness" laws - we call it 'economic justice' - as we villainize the producers and encourage them to leave.  When you over-tax and over-regulate something - businesses and the jobs they create - you'll get less of it.

In that sense, the politicians, unions and Occupiers have been wildly successful.  Well done.

Accept The Challenge

California politicians like Steinberg will harp on companies like Waste Connections as wanting to harm the state.  Just a bunch of Tea Bagging, greedy, racist sons-of-bitches.  Companies bad, Caretaker government good.

Steinberg has this vision that California is this beautiful, pristine state.  In reality, it is a body riddled with cancer.  When you have cancer, you've got to cut out the tumor or you die.  It's really that simple.

The externally pristine body must be cut deeply to save it.  Band-aids and positive thinking have had their chance, and didn't work.  Time to don the scrubs and sharpen the scalpels.  The blood supply is running low, so you better get going quickly.

Either that, or as the businesses are doing, you leave, and the result is starvation.  You just have to hope you kill the tumor before you kill the body.

My guess is that California politicians will take the second option.  They'll keep up the happy talk, and find a few extra pints of blood - probably from DC.  It will keep us alive for a while, but the cancer will eventually eat us alive.

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

Prettiest Horse In The Glue Factory

[I wish I could take credit for that title, but I got it from Stewart Varney on Fox Business.  Classic.]

The amount of disinformation - propaganda - that's out there is stunning.  We don't seem to always get, "the rest of the story" as Paul Harvey used to note.  The Unemployment rate, for instance.  Last week, it wonderfully, miraculously dropped down a half of a percentage point to 8.6%.  Woo Hoo!  We're on the road to salvation!

If you're like certain people - such as my mom, God bless her - you only watch the network news, and you only get the Happy Time version of the story.

Of course, the actual story is that 300,000 Americans fell off the lists to receive unemployment benefits - they'd reached their 99 weeks of payments.  In the eyes of the government, they're no longer considered unemployed.  Isn't that special?

The media tends to paint the picture along the lines of, "Well, at least we don't have riots like they've got in Europe."  They'll then show footage of Greek fire bombs being tossed, rocks being hurled at police officers, and the like.

"Whew, we dodged that one, huh?"

Another example is where Portugal is now the latest nation to steal nationalize the private pensions of their citizens.  Argentina was the leader in this regard, doing the act in 2008.  Hungary did it a few years later, and [I believe] France did a mini-swipe earlier this year.

"Hey, Our Guys In Congress are fighting like mad to keep Social Security intact, and only want to tax those rich bastards a little bit more.  What could be wrong with that?"

On behalf of the federal government, the message the media conveys is that compared to the rest of the world, we're looking OK.  What you need to remember is we're still in the glue factory, and soon, we're going to be turned into bottles of Elmer's.

When that happens, it won't be pretty.  And it will happen.

The owners of the glue factory, The Elites in DC and other world capitals, don't give a damn.  They're getting theirs.  They go into office with a normal net worth, and emerge out the other side as multi-millionaires.

What's important to them is to maintain control.  And to do so requires that they keep a lid on things as long as possible.

In the past month or so, a friend recently went to NYC.  She was blown away.  In no uncertain terms, she called it, "a police state".

She went to the 9/11 memorial.  To get in, she had to pass through a TSA-like security check.  Belt off, purse searched, the whole 9 yards.  Ringing the site were at least 100 armed police officers.  At least.  Everywhere you looked, you could see (for lack of a better term) guard towers.  Boxes on mobile platforms, presumably holding armed snipers.

Similar experience in Time Square and for the ferry going to Ellis Island and the Statue of Liberty.  What are they guarding or protecting against?  Terrorists?  Are they going to blow up the pool at the memorial?

I've written about all of these Bearcat armored personnel carriers ("More Nannyism Comin' Your Way") that cities and counties are picking up via grants from the federal government.  WTF? Who are they preparing to go to battle with?

You, perhaps?



Holy crap.  Seven days of food, guns and ammo, and they can "disappear" you?

93 out of 100 US Senators voted for the bill. They all voted en masse to abrogate the Constitution.

Side note:  Those of you who cling to the misguided belief that there's any difference between Democrats and Republican, take a look at the voting tallies.

The conservative media is now whining that this bill is no big deal.  Relax, ya big sissy.  If you're not a bad guy, you've got nothing to worry about.

To wit [link]-

The ACLU, Occupy San Francisco and other left wing groups are hysterically protesting that one of its provisions encroaches on civil liberties, and Obama has threatened to veto it. Section 1032 states that suspected terrorists related to al Qaeda and 911 shall be detained indefinitely by the military without a civilian trial until the end of authorized military hostilities.

Do me a favor:  Click the link to the above-cited article.  Inside of that article is another link to Section 1031 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).  Click it, and go down and read paragraph (e).

Now, go here [link to PDF file from the Government Printing Office].  This is a copy of the actual bill that was approved by the Senate.  In the search box, key in 1031 and read the text, including paragraph (e).  Notice the difference?

Here's what's missing from the conservative media version of the bill -

10 (e) AUTHORITIES.—Nothing in this section shall be
11 construed to affect existing law or authorities, relating to
12 the detention of United States citizens, lawful resident
13 aliens of the United States or any other persons who are
14 captured or arrested in the United States.

Well, isn't that special?  They conveniently left out the whole Snatch-and-Grab paragraph that relates to US citizens.  Hell, they didn't just leave it out, they actually falsified the information that they are presenting as fact.

The law of the land - the Constitution - is being undercut, and all of The Elites are getting on board to rubber stamp it.  As the numerous articles written on the subject have noted, this merely codifies what the Supreme Court has already said is A-OK. 

American citizens accused of being terrorists give up their Constitutional rights.  Not convicted Americans, accused Americans.

The Constitution spells out how it's supposed to work.  Article 1, Section 9 -

The privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in cases of rebellion or invasion, the public safety may require it.

So, it appears as though The Elites in DC are going to use the "public safety" portion of the habeas corpus clause the same way they're using the commerce clause to force us to buy health care insurance, or control the crops we grow on our own property for our own use.  Rebellion will be defined as anything that goes counter to what The Elites prescribe.

Nice and tidy, huh?  The government merely needs to allege you're a terrorist, and you go away with no ability to have your day in court.

How's your view from the Glue Factory?


Accept The Challenge

The Elites are in the Bread and Circus' phase.  Keep us - The Ignorants - fat and happy by giving us free food, housing, schooling, clothing and a little spending money.  Keep us occupied by using your compliant Media to keep our pea brains amused - reality shows, video games, et al - while the very fabric of America is re-woven.

The money for the Bread will eventually run out and the real pain will begin.  The Elites will clamp down to maintain control.  Dissident voices will be silenced as, "Enemies of the State" and will simply disappear.

I think we're going to all fall into one of 4 categories:  Elites, Ignorants, Rebels or Sympathisers.

The Elites will be the equivalent of the old Politburo and their minions - the local "political officer" seen in China and the former Soviet Union.

The Ignorants will be the folks that, "go with the flow" and are generally supportive of the Elites.  They'll be Elite wannabe's.  They'll rat you out at the drop of a hat if they think it will get them more bread or an upgrade in social status.

The Rebels will actively resist the Elites.  They'll be underground - think "French Resistance" during World War II.

The Sympathizers will walk and talk like the Ignorants, but will be supportive of the Rebels.  They'll keep their head down, and supply the Rebels with intel and financial/material support.

Start thinking about which category you'll select.  All have risks, all have rewards.  Plan accordingly.

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

Survival Doc

Just a quick heads-up about a new site on my Daily Read list - The Survival Doctor [link].  The guy is an MD and has tons of survival medical techniques to be used when you can't get to professional medical personnel.

Videos, lots of pictures, broad array of topics.  Excellent stuff.

h/t Bug-out Survival

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

Retention Holsters

A retention holster most likely saved at least one life this weekend.

I was teaching my First Steps Pistol Orientation class this weekend.  The facility I use has two classrooms, and is located in a full-service gun shop/firing range.  It's perfect for my purposes.

The class started at 11am.  The manager of the shop had an employee that wasn't able to get there at opening (10 am), so the manager was in the shop by himself.  All of the shop employees carry sidearms, open-carry.

For my class, the NRA requires that no live ammo be present in the classroom.  So, I'm in the back of the building, with 6 students, 7 pistols, and no ammo.

Around 11:30, a young guy walks in to the gun shop.  He says he wants to see about picking up a pepper spray for his girlfriend.  The pepper spray display is locked up, at the front of the shop.  It required the manager to come out from behind the counter to open the case.

As he was unlocking the case, the young man grabbed the manager's gun from behind.  Thankfully, he was using a Serpa Retention holster.

For those of you unfamiliar with what this is, it's a holster with a button on the side of the holster.  When you're gripping the gun, you run your index finger down the side of the holster, and it unlocks the gun, allowing you to remove it from the holster.  If you just try and pull out the gun, it stays put on the hip of the owner.

Anyways, as the guy is grabbing the gun, he slams the manager's head into the case, dazing him.  The manager was able to throw an elbow and spin around so he's facing the young guy.  The manager then pulled back and hammered the guy square in the face, dropping him to the ground.

As the manager cleared the cobwebs from his head, and went to draw his gun, the guy scampered out the door into a car with an accomplice.  As much as he wanted, no shots were fired as the threat had retreated.
---

There were a couple of guys in the shooting range when this happened, but they were as oblivious to what was happening as my class and I were.  Had the manager not been wearing the retention holster, he would have likely been shot in the back.

The bad guy would have had the run of the gun shop - the unimpeded ability to take as many guns as he wished.  And plenty of ammo.  If he got bold enough, he could have entered my classroom and done as he pleased.  The best-case result would have been acquiring another 7 handguns.


Accept The Challenge

If you're carrying open-carry, wear a retention holster.  Cops do this for very good reasons, you should as well.

While I personally prefer the Serpa's, one may not be made for your specific gun.  Consider a thumb break style -

There's a snap or velcro strap that goes over the rear of the gun.  This strap attachment is "broken" with your thumb while drawing the gun.

If you're carrying a gun on your hip (concealed or open), be very aware of allowing anyone to be behind you.  Your concealed handgun may not be as well concealed as you may think, and could become a target of bad guys.

Oh, and I will no longer be unarmed when teaching any of my classes.  I'll drop my NRA affiliation before unnecessarily placing my life at risk.

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

How Have We Strayed So Far?

The Judge rocks.  How could we have strayed so far from the Constitution?




---
If the Occupy Wall Street protests had stayed along these lines, they'd have had me out there with them. [Heads up: a little rough language]




---
I heard a quote from Colon Powell that turned my stomach. I guess this is what happens when warriors become politicians. It was along the lines of, "America was founded on compromise".

Really? Thumbing through my old, tattered American history book, I see that compromise didn't work. Our country was founded by the exact opposite of compromise - it was founded by war. Our founders took up arms because they wouldn't compromise their principles.

But that doesn't fit the current political climate, so you just change the facts to suit your ends.  Bastard.

---

Did you hear about the kid that the state of Ohio stole from his mom because she was teaching him a religion that was against state guidelines?  Yeah, they said that their guidelines require that any religion that teaches that individuals are in charge of their own body, that questioning authority is the ultimate sign of personal power, and that the ownership of property is the only true measure of freedom will result in a child with a warped outlook on life. For the safety and future well-being of the child, they had to act.  They had given the mother all kinds of time to change how she was raising the child, but to no avail.  He's now much better off as a ward of the state.

Oh, wait, my bad, they actually snatched up the kid because he was too fat [link], at least in the opinion of the state.  They piled on fat docs from the federal government and hoity-toity expert groups, and tore the kid away from his family.  He MAY have come down with diabetes.  Weight loss MIGHT help his sleep apnea.  Foster care MIGHT fix the problem.

As the HuffPo regurgitation of the AP article notes,

Roughly 2 million U.S. children are extremely obese – weighing significantly more than what's considered healthy.

So, 2 million families need to be looking over their shoulder waiting for the CPS workers with the big dog-catcher nets to pounce on their kids?

I was going to say that if they had tried that at my house, there would have been gunfire.  As I read the various articles and watched various videos, my guess is that this family was on the government dole, at least in part.  You take our money, you follow our rules.

Never mind.  Like the mother in the story, you're too stupid to understand what's best for you and your family.  The judgement of a bureaucrat is always superior to that of the individual, right?
---

And just because this lifts my spirits (no pun intended) when I get overloaded with this mess of a Nation.

Crank it....




---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

Why You Need To Care About The EU

What seems like a million years ago - 2008 - I was an Executive Vice President for a small community bank in the SF Bay Area.  We were NOT on the Too Big To Fail list!

Our investment policy stated that we'd only buy investment securities from AAA rated companies, or from the Federal Government.  If there was an investment we wanted to put money into that didn't meet those criteria, we would buy insurance to protect us.

This insurance was called a Credit Default Swap (CDS).  We'd do research on the strength of the company issuing the CDSs to make sure that if our investment went bad, the "insurance company" had the financial strength to meet its obligations.

Something that is important to understand is that the companies that issue these CDSs have no interest or control in the securities they're insuring.  They simply create these policies out of thin air.  They are part of the greater derivatives market (a newly created financial instrument that is derived from another one).

They do research on the underlying securities (say, Mortgage Backed Securities) to determine the likelihood of there being a default on the security (like, for instance, if the people making the payments on the mortgages stop making payments).  If enough of the payment stream is disrupted, the insurance company must pay up.

Similarly, when companies issue bonds, these are essentially loans.  You give the company X dollars, and they give you a stream of payments to pay down the loan.  If the company goes teats-up, the stockholders take the first hit.  They're wiped out.  The bond holders are (usually) secured creditors.  The assets of the company are sold, and the bond holders get some of their money back.

If the bond holder doesn't get back all of his investment PLUS interest, AND he bought a CDS, the CDS issuers make up the difference.

So how does this relate to the European Union (EU)?  The short answer is, European countries and banks have issued a ton of bonds.  US banks have issued a ton of CDSs on those bonds.  If the Euro countries and banks crash, our biggest banks crash with them.

How can that be?  Surely, like a real insurance company, the banks that issued the CDSs held cash or other assets in reserve to cover losses, right?

Uhm, not so much -

Goldman Sachs and US banks have guaranteed perhaps one trillion dollars or more of European sovereign debt [Euro "treasuries" - .ed] by selling swaps or insurance against which they have not reserved. The fees the US banks received for guaranteeing the values of European sovereign debt instruments simply went into profits and executive bonuses. This, of course, is what ruined the American insurance giant, AIG, leading to the TARP bailout at US taxpayer expense and Goldman Sachs’ enormous profits.

So, if other EU countries follow the path of Greece, how are they going to fix this?  There are a couple of options, all of which are going to cost you.

The first option would be to let the EU and their banks crash, and for the US to simply back-stop our own banks.  TARP Part Two (or it is Part Three?).  Not very likely.

Another option would be for more pass-through funding like we did with the original TARP (the US gave money to US banks, who in turn laundered it and gave it to their EU counterparts).  Again, not too likely, as people in the financial press - puppets that they are - might actually ask the question about whether we're going to spend US tax dollars in EU banks, and the answer would be politically devastating.

The third option would be to use a third-party bag man to deliver the cash.  Oh, like maybe the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  We'll dump buckets-o-fiat-currency into the IMF, and they'll pass it off to the EU countries that are gasping for breath.

Along the same lines, the Federal Reserve may open up a big-assed line of credit for the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep things afloat.  Same thing as the IMF route, just using a different bag man.

Since we're not currently flush with excess cash to pay for all of this, Uncle Ben Bernanke will flip on his laptop, and just create the needed funds.  Expect lots of commas and zeroes in the number.

Also expect a further decline in the purchasing power of those green-backs you have in your wallet.
---

In totally unrelated news (snicker) sovereign nations went on a buying binge last quarter.  What were they buying?  It was that stuff Uncle Ben says isn't money.  Gold.

Total central-bank gold purchases in the third quarter more than doubled from the second quarter and were almost seven times higher than a year earlier as countries continued to diversify reserves, according to a World Gold Council report.

At 148.4 metric tons, gold buying among central banks was at the highest since the sector became a net buyer of the precious metal in the second quarter of 2009, according to the quarterly report.

Double the previous quarter, and seven-times the amount from the same quarter of a year ago.  There sure are a lot of stupid countries out there, huh?

Hell, even dictators are falling for it -

Amid wild celebrations, a first shipment of gold bars arrived home in Venezuela on Friday after President Hugo Chavez ordered almost all the country's foreign bullion reserves be repatriated from Western banks.

Excited crowds lined the roadside waving big Venezuelan flags and chanting "It's returned! It's returned!" as a convoy of soldiers and armored cars carried the ingots from Maiquetia airport to the central bank in Caracas.

Experts had cautioned that the operation, which will eventually transport more than 160 tonnes of gold bars worth more than $11 billion to the South American country, would be risky, slow and expensive.

So, good old Hugo doesn't trust the central banks to actually have his country's gold on-hand, so he wants it in his own greasy little paws.

Silly, silly boy.  Uncle Ben and all of the other "experts" are just laughing their asses off at all of these fools clamoring for physical gold.  Yuck, yuck, yuck...

Hey, brother... can ya spare a Kruggerand?

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

Deflation, Depression and Deception

If you've been watching the PM market over the past few days, you'll have seen that it's been a wild ride.  On Thursday of last week, gold dropped $50 an ounce.  Up $5 on Friday.  Down another $50 on Monday, and up $20 today (at this time).  Net:  Roughly a $75 drop since late last week.  Ouch.

With yesterday's drop, I wanted to find out what the hell might be causing this.  Most of the "expert articles" I read really didn't say anything.  Most were technical chart driven BS.

But one article caught my eye:  "Gold prices slaughtered as deflationary fears reign" [link].

I'm thinking, "Holy crap - we all know that deflation precedes depression, so here it finally comes".

The theory kind of goes like this:  Demand is so low that producers have to sell the products they've got stacked up in their warehouses - at almost any price.  Prices in general plummet as other businesses drop their prices to keep pace with their competitors.  Income at the producer companies also plummets, and they can't keep their doors open.

This is repeated all over the economy.  Because all of these companies are out of business, unemployment soars, causing the economy to further sour, as with fewer workers, there are fewer dollars being spent, and it turns into this horrible self-perpetuating mess that we call a "depression".

How does this affect the price of Precious Metals?  If you think prices are going to drop, you want to get out of commodities, and into cash.  Those dollars you hold now will be able to buy more commodities-per-dollar in the future.
---

As I noted earlier, all depressions have been preceded by deflation.

Uhm, well, not so much.  In fact, it looks like there may be little to no correlation between the two.  A couple of economists went back at least 100 years and studied the data from 16 countries (including the US) regarding deflation and depression.  They used actual raw data, not the sanitized "seasonally adjusted" crap we get fed.

One period they studied was the Great Depression.  From the Ludwig von Mises Institute [link] -

In other words, a one-percentage point reduction in inflation is associated with a .40 percentage point decline in real output growth during the Great Depression, although even during this episode the probability that there is no relationship between deflation and depression (the level of significance) exceeds 10 percent. In the jargon of statistical inference this means that the relationship between deflation and depression is not "statistically significant. (emphasis added)"

Whoa.  So it's actually more likely that deflation is an indication that a depression is NOT coming?  This hurts my head 'cause my brains are all scrambled.

Why oh why isn't this study - published in 2004 - more widely discussed?  If it's crap, get a couple of eggheads out there battling to the death.  Disprove the study and move on.

But what if it's true?  What would it mean if deflation wasn't this big-assed Boogie Man that would plunge us into another depression?

For one thing, it would mean that the "justification" the Federal Reserve Bank gives for pumping money into the economy to combat deflation would be baseless.  In fact, it would actually be harmful.

And, holy crap, one of the authors of the study actually WORKS FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK!!  Well, he did at the time he co-authored the study.  I'm guessing that he might be bedding with Jimmy Hoffa right about now...

Accept The Challenge

The long and short of it is that deflation happens, but economies don't crater via this Domino Effect collapse.  History has proven that companies take their lumps, adjust their pricing and costs, and Git 'er done.  The strong companies survive, and the bad companies perish.... just like it's supposed to happen.

But back to PMs - if deflation is happening, should you get out of PMs and into cash?  I guess that depends on your economic outlook horizon.

If you're a Day Trader - speculating on what is going to happen over the near-term - you're going to have to break out your Ouiji board to get your answers.  I've got no clue if some sheikh in some sand country is going to fart in the face of some other sheikh, causing commodity markets to soar or crash.

I personally try to look out 3 to 5 years for the big picture trend.  I see a US government that conned the public into a "deal" whereby the debt limit was increased by $2 trillion in exchange for $1.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years.  That debt limit will be reached in under 12 months or so, and the cuts will likely never happen - Congress-critters are already talking about how to side-step the "mandate".

Nothing is going to change in this time frame.  We'll continue to spend more than we take in.  We'll either raise taxes, print more money, or both.  Probably both.

In theory, if the Eurozone craters, the euro dies, and the dollar soars - punishing commodity holders.  In reality, we'll be the Bail Out-er of Last Resort.  Our banks are tightly intertwined with their banks.  If they fail, ours fail, and Uncle Ben Bernanke will not let that happen.

Again, we'll print more money, debasing the dollar, pushing up the price of commodities.

Physical possession of commodities will be the only way to maintain your asset base.  I've only got so much room for beans and bullets, so PMs are my answer.

We'll continue to have these up and down blips on commodity prices.  When that sheikh gets gassy, we'll get a temporary rise or drop, but the overall trend will be upwards.

Now, go do YOUR homework to support or disprove these beliefs, the ACT accordingly.

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com

Sweet Deal

I've got a long-time customer in our bullion shop - he's a silver buyer - that came in 2 months ago.  He had a box full of local, organic honey.  It seems that he's a beekeeper on the side, and wanted to know if anyone wanted to buy a pound or two.

It was a bit pricey - $7 a pound - but he ended up selling 8 pounds or so to me and some of my employees.  I mentioned that I usually buy my honey in bulk - twenty or thirty pounds at a time for my prep storage, or for when I make up a batch of mead (honey wine).

Fast forward to last week:  He pops in again and say he has a bunch of honey he can't sell in his regular 1- and 2-pound bottles, as it's not "commercially presentable".  It was crystallizing and appeared cloudy.  I know that all honey will eventually crystallize and simply heating it up brings it to the rich honey "look" once again.

He wanted to know if I'd like to buy some of this honey in bulk.  How much?  5 gallons at a pop - that's 60 pounds!  We did some negotiating, and we agreed on a price of $3.50 a pound ($210 total), plus he had to break it down into half gallon lots - 6 pounds each.

He then springs this on me:  Hey, you want to "trade" for silver?  Not "yes" but "HELL YES"!  He is currently acquiring Morgan silver dollars.  These are coins that were minted from 1878 to 1921 (with a big gap from 1904 to 1921), and they have 0.77 ounces of pure silver in each.

After some hemming and hawing, we agreed on a number:  8.  I got 60 pounds of raw, organic honey for eight bucks!  Now of course, the value of those eight dollars was considerably higher than eight pieces of green paper, or copper-clad quarters, dimes, halves or modern dollars.

Happy buyer, happy seller.
---

After we cut our deal, he brought up my mead making activities.  If he provided the honey, would I brew up a batch for him.  I told him that whatever I made, I'd keep half for my time and trouble, plus I'd purchase the proper yeast and provide the equipment.

Deal.  On Wednesday, he dropped off another 27 pounds of honey.  Fifteen pounds will be used for a sweet mead - actually a fruit mead (called a melomel), and twelve pounds will be used for a dry mead.  That will be a total of 10 gallons of mead - which takes a year to make and mellow.

To hold him over, I gave him two pints of my current stock - a Raspberry Melomel and an Orange Melomel.

Drink slowly, my friend.....
---

Different subject:  Regular commenter Joseph provided a link in a comment to the last post that I wanted to make sure everyone got a chance to see.  This site has a number of videos regarding the Credit Crisis.  Those that I've had a chance to view are very good.  They give a down-to-earth explanation of a number of complex subject.

Take a look here [link].

If you scroll up and down on the page, they've got videos on everything under the sun.  Seriously, a TON of information on everything from banking to art history.  Impressive collection of knowledge.

---
Copyright 2011 Bison Risk Management Associates. All rights reserved. Please note that in addition to owning Bison Risk Management, Chief Instructor is also a partner in a precious metals business. You are encouraged to repost this information so long as it is credited to Bison Risk Management Associates. www.BisonRMA.com