tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post4515364867127080337..comments2023-10-11T04:38:51.793-07:00Comments on Accept The Challenge: Normalcy BiasChief Instructorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13604561415860237705noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post-58488737064896817992011-01-06T20:04:03.016-08:002011-01-06T20:04:03.016-08:00Regarding Y2K - I work in IT and I worked on sever...Regarding Y2K - I work in IT and I worked on several Y2K fix projects. The many reason overall very little problems occurred with Y2K was because the problem was clearly defined and the fix, though massive, was clear and unquestionable just as the evidence to prove the fixes worked were clear and unquestionable. By comparison to what is being done to America economically (QE2, etc) there is no evidence ever in human history that it will work and plenty of evidence that it won't.MasterPohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07247333453805284751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post-89009104025562322352011-01-04T10:32:16.472-08:002011-01-04T10:32:16.472-08:00Anony...
You seem knowledgeable in the field... ...Anony...<br /><br />You seem knowledgeable in the field... Question for you, if you happen to know about it as well...<br /><br />We have a lighting store in California. As you may be aware, our legislators have put in restrictions mandating that fluorescent ballasts for lamps over 13 watts must now be electric. Previous to this legislation, it was not uncommon for our customers (mostly commercial/industrial handymen) to bring in 15-20+ year old ballasts for replacement. Since going to electronic ballasts, the lives seem to be about 5-7 years. Is that consistent with what you know, or would you consider it to be less than ideal productions in what is still fairly early technology?<br /><br />We see the failures - we have no way of knowing what percentage of usage results in replacement. We also can't tell when the ballasts were made any more - they manufacturers are putting "run" serial numbers on them instead of decipherable date info. We have to guesstimate based on the handyman's knowledge of the probable time period when the fixture was installed, and then call the manufacturer to see if it's still covered by a warranty (usually 3-5 years)sueknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post-54824260084994015592011-01-04T08:14:12.007-08:002011-01-04T08:14:12.007-08:00With the exception of a handful of very high volta...With the exception of a handful of very high voltage transformers all of our transformers use technology that is about 100 years old. The large high voltage transformers simply weigh more. In facvt because of their design they are really quite simple to rebuild and any utility company with an overhead crane could rebuild one. We do not rebuild them at the utility level today simply because it is more cost effective to buy them new or rebuilt from the factory. But the capability is there. In fact if you were to watch a typical large high voltage transformer being built up you would be suprised at it's simplicity. The real question is what would we (individual utilities) do? Would they simply wait for a new transformer or would they take the inititive and rebuild them. I can tell you with confidence that about 20% of the utilities and power generation facilities would attempt the rebuild themselves and once they were successful this practice would spread to 100% of the utilities. Keep in mind that since this is not the norm today it would require that someone break out of the mould and take action. But also be aware that about half of the electrical engineers at a utility tend to be hands on people who are unafraid to try new things. And most utility workers are "can do" people who know how to fix the system and will get the job done. By the way, no slight intended. The other half of the electrical engineers tend to be conservative "thinking" people rather then hands on and it is generally thanks to them that many distribution systems have many redundancies and safeguards. It is interesting to be in the same room with these two types when a problem comes up or a new idea is floated. They could argue for days but generally the meeting ends and the hands on guys go do what needs doing while the cerebral ones go back to their desks and come up with two or three good options to deal with the problem long term. My guess is we need both types.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post-28831153502223752872011-01-04T07:34:54.995-08:002011-01-04T07:34:54.995-08:00Sue, well, I'm not going to argue that one par...Sue, well, I'm not going to argue that one party is less corrupt than another. They both lie incessantly, they both occasionally get caught and tossed out of office. Perhaps the Dems are better at not getting caught. I dunno.Chief Instructorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13604561415860237705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post-39493331412397334832011-01-03T14:24:50.296-08:002011-01-03T14:24:50.296-08:00I disagree with your inclusion of "all" ...I disagree with your inclusion of "all" political groups. I can't disprove it, but I think that the fact that Repubs are found to be guilty of violations and are then kicked out is an indication that their actions are unacceptable. Dems are found to be guilty of violations and nothing happens to them. That says worlds to me.<br /><br />There will always be corrupt dishonest people - it's the acceptability of the corruption and dishonesty that indicates a problem.sueknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post-17570885906418376882011-01-03T10:27:45.873-08:002011-01-03T10:27:45.873-08:00Anon, regarding electrical grid: I've read/he...Anon, regarding electrical grid: I've read/heard that our biggest soft spot has to do with transformers. Apparently, none of them are made here in the US, and if they get fried from an EMP/solar flare, we're screwed? Any insight?<br /><br />Sue: Great points about the dishonesty, although I'd expand it to not only include those listed, but most political groups. They feel that the ends justifies the means. <br /><br />Be it a "little white lie" or a bald-faced lie, if it advances their agenda, they'll do it. They've got the self-granted moral justification that whatever they're doing, they're doing in our best interest.<br /><br />I'm a big believer in the adage, "If their lips are moving, they're lying."Chief Instructorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13604561415860237705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post-69163724458682360112011-01-03T09:38:31.393-08:002011-01-03T09:38:31.393-08:00I liked Rumsfeld's statements to the effect th...I liked Rumsfeld's statements to the effect that you have known problems you have to address, and you have the unknown problems. When addressing the unknown problems, you have the known unknowns (how many, how much etc) that you know you need to figure out, but the ones that'll get you are the unknown unknowns. You can't seek info about those things you don't know exist.<br /><br />I think the Y2K problem was a blend of the two - that is, most people suddenly awoke to the fact that technology could be a major problem, but didn't have enough knowledge or background to evaluate the reality or seriousness of the problem. It's easy to say "don't worry about that" from a position of intimate knowledge with the facts, it's entirely another to say "I won't worry about that because I completely trust you know the facts and aren't concerned".<br /><br />One of the big issues for me concerning the muslims is the concept of taqiyya. I find the idea of lying being moral to be really frightening, and moreso because I hadn't really appreciated how deeply our culture is built on the expectation that the people we deal with daily generally are truthful and trustworthy. Mostly. Now I've come to the conclusion that most deeply committed Progressives are equally untrustworthy - that lying is OK for them if it moves them closer to their goals. And that terrifies me - because many of them are responsible for our governance. And you can't trust them to tell you the truth.sueknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8964596045360803212.post-1868189694967828642011-01-03T07:41:06.762-08:002011-01-03T07:41:06.762-08:00You are absolutely correct about Y2K. There was s...You are absolutely correct about Y2K. There was some unknowns but in general the people that worked in those areas where there were likely to be problems knew they could be addressed and corrected as they came up. On that subject I worked for years for a electric utility and I worked as a consultant to the largest electricity generation organization in the U.S. The fear that is often put out there that our grid will go down and never come back up is totally false. There are things that could harm the grid, don't misunderstand what I'm saying. But within an hour of any disaster an army of utility workers will be out there fixing the problems. This is the one piece of technology that we really understand quite well and have ample ability to repair it. There are some components that would take longer or would require a "work around" to fix. But it would be fixed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com